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Reading the electoral tea leaves for Croydon

Tuesday, May 13, 2008
I have just got hold of the ward data for the London elections, and judging from the Assembly vote, Gavin Barwell ought to walk Croydon Central at the next general election. I make Steve O'Connell's share in the Croydon Central wards 46.6%, to the 25.5% for Labour.

The seat is notionally Labour, given boundary changes, but we won it in 2005. Pelling's share of the vote was 40.8% to Davies's 40.6%. The Lib Dems were squeezed from 13% to 9.2%. UKIP and the Greens fared better, share-wise, than at the general election.

Croydon North looks to be safe for the Wickser - 42% for Labour, down from 54%. The much mocked Jason Hadden should be aiming for 27%, up from our 22% last time.

That Richard Ottaway will retain Croydon South cannot be in doubt.

More of this sort of thing for other marginal seats on request.

Gavin - should you (or any of your people) read this, do something about your gavin4croydon site - it only makes page three of the googling of Gavin Barwell. *Not* good. I cheated and tried Gavin Barwell Croydon Central, and that makes page one. Just.

Update

Further peering at the darjeeling suggests that Carshalton & Wallington would be lost to the Yellow Peril - Brake's 40.3% at the election compares to 31.4% this time, with the Tory candidate securing 39.8% in May, compared to 37.8% in 2005.

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French TV shocker - Formula One more popular than Trotskyism

At least judging by last weekend's viewing figures, with the Turkish GP attracting more viewers than an interview with my old mate Olivier Besancenot.

So far, so very so what. However, Besancenot has attracted the highest audience share for a politician so far this year, outdoing Ségolène Royal, Rachida Dati (the French equivalent of Jack Straw, if a great deal easier on the eye) and Simone Veil - still alive, amazingly enough. The interviewer is more of a Wogan / Jonathan Ross type than an Andrew Marr, from what I can divine.

However, the Trot postie has a long way to go before toppling Bernie Chirac as the most watched pol. She reaped a 27% share to his 20%. I was about to note that one would be hard pressed to find anything interesting to say about her, but apparently Mlle Chodron de Courcel's father was an Etonian, if my source is to believed. Can't say I am wholly convinced, actually.

Further digging has turned up this photograph at the Élysée's site, which I think deserves a fresh audience:




Captions welcome.....

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Free money?

Something for any other gamblers out there - Real Madrid vs Levante in the Spanish Primera Division, this Sunday. Not because RM are top and Levante are bottom, but because of this:

"The threats and warnings by the players of Levante soccer club were officially voted into concrete action yesterday, as the team decided to go ahead with a players’ strike starting this Saturday for an indefinite period, which will affect Sunday’s final game of the season against champion Real Madrid at the capital’s Santiago Bernabéu stadium". (Source)

RM can be backed at 1.2 on Betfair. If the Levante second 11 turns up it will be slaughtered, and if the game is forfeited the bet is cancelled.

(If anyone fancies the bet, e-mail for a referral to Betfair as it gives me a kickback)

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The man with a bee in his bonnet

Ben Chapman, the remarkably obscure MP for Wirral South would seem to be a bee obsessive, having tabled and received four written answers on bee-related issues yesterday.

Amazing that Jonathan Shaw's patience did not snap and result in him telling Chapman to buzz off. (rim shot)

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A little bombshell for the Premier League

From our friends in Brussels:

"The Commission recommends to sport organisations to pay due attention to the creation and maintenance of solidarity mechanisms. In the area of sport media rights, such mechanisms can take the form of a system of collective selling of media rights or, alternatively, of a system of individual selling by clubs, in both cases linked to a robust solidarity mechanism".

Two points. Firstly apologies for calling it the Premier League. I think of it as the First Division and always will do, but had to use the current form for sake of clarity. Secondly, 'solidarity' is eurospeak for redistribution. While the sport white paper is filled with hedgings and caveats, it notes very early on that 'sport is subject to the application of the acquis communautaire, or a legal land grab as we might term it in less high falutin' terminology.

Here are some figures a Grauniad journo used in August:

"The Premier League's bottom club can expect £30m from TV this season, a 50% increase on last year's £20m. The average Premier League club will receive about £40m from TV, top clubs about £50m. Championship clubs' TV revenues, plus the new ladder payments, may amount to about £2m each, but the gap with even the Premier League's bottom club has grown from £19m to £28m. Overall, the Premier League's £900m a season dwarfs the Football League's £33m. The £11.2m basic payment being handed out to the 72 clubs is only 1.2% of the Premier League's deal".

Might a litigious lower league club want to argue the toss about 'solidarity'?

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And if Brown resigns for 'health reasons'?

Monday, May 12, 2008
I cannot see Brown willingly letting go of the brass ring, having finally got his greasy mitts on it, but should Straw and the other eminences grise of the party persuade him to do so, there is the potential for a fearfully long interregnum while the People's Party grinds into action. It does beg the question as to who would be running the show while Brown is locked away in a sanatorium?

Unlike Blair, Brown has foregone making the deputy leader of the Labour Party the deputy PM, although I imagine that Harman would be most keen to insist that she should become the PM pending a leadership election should Brown be pushed. Straw would probably present himself as a safe pair of hands, and if truth be told, he would be the sensible choice for that caretaker role. As with Beckett in '94 or whenever it was, both Straw and Harman would regard the stopgap role as a dress rehearsal for the real thing.

As has been noted elsewhere, the Tories do regicide rather better than Labour, but the Hague leadership rules would make the process of replacing a sitting Tory PM messy and drawn out too. While Brown could name a deputy PM - and there should be as clear cut a line of succession as there is in the US - I do not imagine that he will, as that would be an admission that he is indeed mortal.

So, perhaps I should be careful what I wish for, although if Straw were in charge one might at least expect a degree of competence.

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Good grief

Following a link trail, I ended up here:

The British Parking Awards. As in parking of a car. "[the] award was announced by actress and journalist Meera Syal". Well, a resting actress is entitled to make a living, but how in Vishnu's name did she keep a straight face?

I am *not* making this up, and I fear that words have actually failed me, so I will fall back on the old line about the apocalypse. I think I can hear hooves in the distance.

A little further digging shows that Adrian 'Voodoo' Chiles presented the awards in 2007, and showing the neutrality we expect of BBC figures referred to himself as "a leftie liberal". Yes he did.

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A history lesson for Chavez

Hugo Chavez does not seem to be up to speed with German political history, judging from this little outburst at Frau Merkel:

"The Venezuelan leader criticized Chancellor Angela Merkel for belonging to the conservative Christian Democratic Union, calling the movement "the same right wing that supported Hitler and fascism".

Well, the CDU was founded by Adenauer, who would have no truck with the Nazis, and consequently spent time in The Big House. Still, why let the facts stand in the way of a good rant?

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My favourite quango

I am not a fan of quangos, but I make an exception for the Maritime and Coastguard Agency because of the prose style of its media people.

Here is a classic:

Headlined "Drink and stupidity lead to two in the water at Studland", and continues "Portland Coastguard have been co-ordinating in the wee small hours of this morning a search for two young people who took off from a beach in a dinghy just after 3.00 am this morning with no visible means of propulsion".

That pretty much relays all the necessary information, and I wish that other quangos, government departments - well, all press rooms, actually - could be as forthright.

Previously the MCA has erred on the side of polite, as with this release:

""At ten minutes to nine yesterday evening Solent Coastguard received a 999 call from a concerned gentleman. The man was concerned for two ladies, they had both gone for a walk with a dog at half past four in the afternoon".

Further MCA shenanigans can be retrieved by clicking on the quango tag.


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The joys of bluetooth

Saturday, May 10, 2008
If you have a mobile 'phone, a universe - well, a minor asteroid - of entertainment is yours for the having, and gratis to boot. Search for bluetooth enabled devices in a public place and all sorts of oddities will leap out.
So, humble narrator is in a pub and goes for a bluetooth check while S/O is powdering her nose. And lo and indeed behold, I get 'blk kitty cat', 'ginger kitty cat' and some other form of cat which i will have to check in a second.
Previous bluetoothings have given 'killer of rabbit' in a Spanish bar, 'lonely angel' at an airport, 'sexy queen Ann' (so much for history / spelling) and rather alarmingly someone called Mito who had three different Nokia phones, apparently.

Anyway, give it a go.

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Can't Brown get anything right?

Thursday, May 08, 2008
Just spotted this in the transcript of his speech about the Miracle on the Med (not that he called it that):

"Naturally I agreed to do it and I spent some time writing the lecture. It was only at the last minute, literally a day or two before, when I was making arrangements to get to the Hilton Hotel that I discovered it was not the Hilton Hotel in London where I was to speak, but the Hilton Hotel in Tel Aviv".


Either he (or rather his flunkeys) could not find Brown's backside with the aid of both hands, a bank of klieg lights and shouted out instructions, or this is the lamest attempt of humour this year.

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What have Europe's children done to deserve this?

"On 9 May, pupils in the schools of the four corners of Europe will discuss the EU's role in the world with European Commission 'ambassadors'. By going local, to talk directly to European students (13-18 year-olds) and listen to their views, the Commission 'ambassadors' will stimulate debate on the EU's commitment to solidarity".

Poor wretches. Especially the children, but I imagine it will be a pretty ghastly experience for the 'ambassadors', some of whom might be relatively blameless.

Meanwhile, the 9th of May is Europe Day. Apparently. And this is what the EU website has to say about it:

"On the 9th of May 1950, Robert Schuman presented his proposal on the creation of an organised Europe, indispensable to the maintenance of peaceful relations.

This proposal, known as the "Schuman declaration", is considered to be the beginning of the creation of what is now the European Union.

"Today, the 9th of May has become a European symbol (Europe Day) which, along with the flag, the anthem, the motto and the single currency (the euro), identifies the political entity of the European Union. Europe Day is the occasion for activities and festivities that bring Europe closer to its citizens and peoples of the Union closer to one another". How delightful.

Europe is not alone in having a day of fervour named for a continent, as it will be Africa Day on the 25th. Not that I am a cynic, but I imagine the Afro bunfight slated for Trafalgar Square was an initiative cooked up by the previous Mayor.

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"It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world... but for Papua New Guinea?

Wednesday, May 07, 2008
With apologies to Robert Bolt. The quote is not entirely appropriate, but indulge me, please:

Taiwan, rather sadly, has to buy its friends, given the clout the 'People's Republic' of China has. More's the pity - Taiwan is a liberal democracy, the PRC anything but. Anyway, Taipei decided that a friend in the South Pacific would be nice, and duly set about wooing Papua New Guinea, not with flowers, not with chocolates or even tickets to the opera, but rather with a huge bribe, cough, a substantial sum of 'aid'. How big? $29.8 million. Just under five bucks per head, but given that PNG's GDP per capita is $2,418, still a worthwhile sum.

Faintly embarrassing having to rent one's date, but that is not what has led to ministerial resignations. Some people resign when they foul up - inhabitants of Downing Street, kindly take note - the foul up being that Taiwan having concluded that rolling up to Port Moresby and pleading through the letter box for a chance was not worth the candle, one of the, ahem, go betweens ran off with the money. How very caddish. More here.

Experience should have told Taiwan that PNG is not that sort of girl - previously it has threatened Oz that it would accept less aid if a spat over a former AG of the Solomon Islands was not resolved.

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The country that won the lottery - so to speak - and blew it

Cat calls and jeers for the leaders of Indonesia:

"Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said yesterday that Indonesia was considering quitting OPEC because it is no longer a net oil exporter....The country is Southeast Asia’s only OPEC member. But it has to import oil because of decades of declining investment in exploration and extraction because of corruption and a weak legal system that makes oil companies wary of doing business there". Source

Meanwhile, "Oil set a new record high of $122 a barrel on Tuesday, the latest spurt in an advance that has seen prices double over the past 12 months". Source

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Steer clear of that midnight train to Georgia

Because "Georgia is close to an outbreak of hostilities with Russia, but Tbilisi has only itself to blame for the current state of affairs, the Russian envoy to NATO said on Tuesday".

I can't imagine that this would be much less one-sided than the Anglo-Zanzibar war of 1896. We won, by the way. It lasted 38 minutes and we made the defeated foe pay for the munitions used by the Royal Navy.

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I want my €116 back. Do you?

Tuesday, May 06, 2008
The EU's budget has been published, and the total to be spent on agriculture and ancillary matters comes to, get this, €57,525,729,686.00. Yup, there it is, on page 19.

Which is quite a lot of money. I make that £44,870,069,155.00.

Taking the population of the EU as being 497,198,740 that gives a cost of the CAP, per head, in direct costs only as €115.69 or £90.25.

(Edited to remove the superfluous renderings of the figure in full. Copy and paste problems not seen at the time of posting).

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Do liberal journalists, or their editors, engage in basic fact checking?

Not Johan Hari and whoever is running The 'Independent' this week:

"At last – a solution to my Boris blues! I have just forced myself to read the detailed election stats from last Thursday. It seems the media cliché is true: it’s the angry, whiter outer suburbs that elected Boris, out of rage with the congestion charge and council tax. Boris will forever be the mayor of Zones Four to Six, the chief executive of Watford and Bromley and Amersham".

Of those three places, only Bromley is part of Greater London and was able to vote Boris. Watford and Amersham are not within zones 1-6 either.

Further, results are not available at a depth greater than constituency level, and the only constituency which is wholly within zones 1-2 is West Central, also known as Westminster, K&C and Hammersmith and Fulham - 54.8% for Boris. The seat that gave Livingstone his strongest showing - City & East - stretches all the way to deeply chic Dagenham, which is zone 5.

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Three cheers for the Peruvians

And for the Mexicans and Argentinians too, as they posted the highest percentages judging media freedom important, at 96% for Peru, and 94% for Mexico and Argentina. Rather depressingly, India underperformed tyrannies like China and Iran, with only 52% valuing media freedom.

Rather disgustingly, 12% of Britons judged media freedom neither very nor somewhat important. Is Broon's payroll vote really that big?

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Pull the other one

Showing more chutzpah than the boy who killed his parents and begged for clemency as an orphan, 'Sir' Ian Blair has had this to say:

"I look forward to developing an effective working relationship between the Met and the new Mayor".

It is a damnable shame that Boris cannot sack the man.

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The politics of envy

Are alive and kicking - with some vigour - on the eastern bank of the Rhine:

"Some 68 percent of those [polled] were for a ceiling on salaries for well-paid managers, whereas only 29 percent were opposed. In former communist eastern Germany a whopping 77 percent backed capping what corporate fat cats make. The survey...comes amid a political debate in Germany whether the government should try put prohibitive taxes on high salaries to discourage widening income disparity".

Note the procrustean approach here. Nothing to do with whether the salaries are justified or not, but rather that they should have a ceiling set in the interests of 'social justice'.

One might note that the CDU/CSU polled 35% at the last election, and the FDP (Genschman's old lot) 10%, so there are some very confused conservatives & liberals.

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The hot air festival of the year

Monday, May 05, 2008
Imagine the most tedious 'in a very real sense' Radio Four 'Thought for the Day', and I doubt it will come close to this gabfest:

"an informal dialogue took place on 5 May in the headquarters of the European Commission, bringing together around twenty high-level representatives of Christianity, Judaism and Islam in Europe...This year, discussions centred around "Climate change: an ethical challenge for all cultures". President Barroso declared: "Climate change obliges all of us to take urgent action. Each part of civil society must contribute to ensuring a sustainable future of our planet. Thanks to their outreach and role in our societies, religions and communities of belief are well placed to make a valuable contribution in mobilising them for a sustainable future".

I hope it was recorded, as it could probably double up as, at the very least, a useful interrogation tool, and possibly a psyops weapon in the field.

I almost feel sorry for Barroso.

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